After two weeks of buying, FPIs turned net sellers in Indian equities this week, with a net withdrawal of Rs 976 crore amid a strengthening US dollar and steady rise in US 10-year bond yields, impacting investor sentiment. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) began the week on a positive note, investing Rs 3,126 crore in equities during the first two trading sessions (December 16-20).
Gross GST collections grew 8.5 per cent to over Rs 1.82 lakh crore in November on account of increased sales spurred by the festive season.
'Investors who remain calm, consistent, and disciplined through short-term volatility are usually the ones who benefit most in the long run.'
'Revision of the base year for both CPI and GDP are long overdue.' 'The basic data that went into the 2011-2012 series were mainly from surveys done in 2011 or earlier.' 'We have since seen the emergence of new sectors like platform-based work and online marketing.' 'The employment surveys and the consumption surveys need to reflect these adequately.'
Recalibrating data of past years using 2011-12 as the base year instead of 2004-05, the Central Statistics Office estimated that India's GDP grew by 8.5% in the financial year 2010-11 and not at 10.3% as previously estimated.
Indian economy is likely to expand in the range of 5.4 to 5.9 per cent this fiscal, as per government estimates.
83% of the CEOS plan to hire more in the new year.
From the Sensex pack, Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys fell over 2 per cent each. Hindustan Unilever, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharma, Power Grid, Bajaj Finserv, HCL Tech, Mahindra & Mahindra, and Tech Mahindra were also among the laggards. Among the gainers, Zomato jumped nearly 5 per cent. Larsen & Toubro, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank were also among the gainers.
Global brokerage firm CLSA has reversed its early tactical shift from Indian equities to Chinese stocks, and has decided to raise India allocation while cutting exposure to China. In its report titled 'Pouncing Tiger, Prevaricating Dragon', CLSA cited challenges facing Chinese markets in the aftermath of Donald Trump's victory in the US elections as the reason for the move. "Misfortune can happen in threes. So it has played out for Chinese equities over the past week.
the GDP estimates incorporate new source data and modified compilation techniques
All eyes will be on whether Sitharaman will deliver a populist budget leaving more money in hands of the common man or push the reform agenda by staying on the fiscal glide path to lower the fiscal deficit to 4.5 per cent of GDP by 2025-26.
The pre-budget Economic Survey, which is tabled in Parliament ahead of the Union Budget to present the state of the economy and suggest policy prescriptions, quite often misses on the GDP forecast, sometimes by a significant margin. This time, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will table the Economic Survey for 2021-22 in the Lok Sabha on Monday soon after the President's address to both Houses of Parliament. She will present the Union Budget for the next financial year beginning April 1, 2022, on Tuesday.
'When people have money in their hands, they make their judgment about whether they want to spend it entirely or spend some out of it.'
It is also likely to assume a deflator of around 4 per cent. That could take the nominal GDP outlook for FY21 to around 10 per cent. It is this nominal GDP forecast on the basis of which the finance ministry is calculating key Budget targets like the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP and tax revenue growth for the coming year.
'As the global economy undergoes significant transformations in 2025, India's ability to navigate the complexities of trade wars, financial realignments, and emerging blocs will be pivotal,' explain Harsh V Pant and Soumya Bhowmik.
The previous high GDP growth of 8.1 per cent was recorded in April-June quarter of 2016-17.
In the manufacturing sector, output is expected to decline by about 70 per cent as only food-processing, and drugs and pharma industries are allowed to operate while other segments, such as engineering and metals, have shut operations.
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday cut India's growth forecast for the current fiscal to 9.5 per cent, from 11 per cent earlier, and warned of risk to the outlook from further waves of COVID pandemic. The agency lowered the growth outlook saying that a severe second COVID-19 outbreak in April and May led to lockdowns imposed by states and sharp contraction in economic activity. "We forecast growth of 9.5 per cent this fiscal year from our March forecast of 11 per cent," S&P said.
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath defended the Maha Kumbh, claiming it generated Rs 3 lakh crore in business and provided significant economic benefits to the region. He also highlighted the "flawless" law-and-order management during the event, citing no crime reports despite the participation of 66 crore devotees and tourists. Adityanath countered opposition criticism of the event, stating that a family with 130 boats made a profit of Rs 30 crore during the 45-day congregation.
'Challenge is basically near-term growth as the outlook has turned a bit adverse.'
In India, economic activity slowed substantially in 2019, with the deceleration most pronounced in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors, whereas government-related services sub-sectors received significant support from public spending, the Bank said.
If the current growth trend in the IT industry continues, software and IT services will contribute 8 per cent of the country's gross domestic product by 2008, Nasscom president Kiran Karnik said on Saturday.
Manufacturing sector grows at 3.5%; agriculture sector at 3.8%
Wall Street brokerage Goldman Sachs has flagged a slew of concerns on the surging COVID-19 caseload that has been hitting new records everyday, coupled with the rising lockdowns, forcing it to downgrade India's GDP growth forecast for the full year to 10.5 per cent from 10.9 per cent, apart from pegging down stock indices valuation and earnings. In a detailed note on Tuesday, Goldman Sachs' house economists led by Sunil Koul said these record number of pandemic cases and a host of key states announcing stricter lockdowns of late have fuelled serious growth concerns, leaving investors worried about the risks to macro and earnings recovery.
From the Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Titan, HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank, Infosys and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the biggest laggards. On the other hand, Adani Ports, Mahindra & Mahindra, Power Grid, Eternal and Hindustan Unilever were among the gainers.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained the GDP forecast for the current financial year at 9.5 per cent and flagged global semiconductor shortages, elevated commodity prices and potential global financial market volatility as downside risks to economic growth. In his address after the three-day meeting of the rate-setting panel, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said recovery in aggregate demand gathered pace in August-September, and it is reflected in high-frequency indicators, like railway freight traffic; port cargo; cement production; electricity demand; e-way bills; GST and toll collections. "The ebbing of infections, together with improving consumer confidence, has been supporting private consumption," he said, and added the pent-up demand and the festival season should give further fillip to urban demand in the second half of the financial year.
'The RBI's MPC will maintain the current policy rates (6.50%) at the policy meeting, given ongoing inflationary pressures.'
Volkswagen Passenger Cars is targeting a volume sales growth of about 15 per cent in the country in 2024, even as it expects the Indian passenger vehicle (PV) industry to grow by 5-7 per cent in the current year, its India brand director, Ashish Gupta, said on Thursday. This means the company is expecting to grow 2-3 times faster than the Indian PV industry in 2024. But globally, the German automaker is expecting just 3 per cent rise in sales this year, down from 12 per cent last year.
In response to the panic triggered by Trump's trade policies, the RBI net sold approximately $43 billion in the second half of FY25 to curb volatility, as the rupee plunged to a low of 87.95 per dollar in February this year.
India's current account deficit declined sharply to 1 per cent of the GDP or $8.3 billion in the second quarter of this financial year, mainly due to lower merchandise trade deficit and growth in services exports, according to a RBI data released on Tuesday. The current account deficit (CAD), which represents the difference between the total amount of money sent abroad and money received from overseas across the economy, was 3.8 per cent of GDP or $30.9 billion in the July-September quarter in 2022-23. CAD was $9.2 billion or 1.1 per cent of GDP in the first quarter (April-June) of the current financial year 2023-24.
Emerging economies can expand at a "reasonable pace" in the next four to five years even if growth in developed nations is moderate, Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said.
There are challenges galore before him, and it is not going to be easy. In the next four years, he has to conjure a system that changes the optics about him and the BJP both nationally and internationally so that he can ride back on his own, claim the top slot, and not have to lean on a coalition, asserts Ramesh Menon as Modi 3.0 completes a year in power.
India's economic growth may slow down to a little over 8 per cent while inflation is likely to be above the comfort level at 6.6 per cent with an upward bias next fiscal, a senior economist from global banking major HSBC said on Wednesday.
Dominic Xavier asks if it is right to blame coronavirus and the lockdown for India's economic decline.
IT and interest rate-sensitive bank, realty, and auto stocks ended with sharp gains.
Calling for immediate policy action by the government, it warned that in the absence of such a step the GDP growth could slide even deeper -- to 4.3 per cent in 2012-13.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its projection of India's economic growth in 2022 to 6.8 per cent, as it joins other global agencies that have trimmed forecasts. The IMF had in July projected a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7.4 per cent for India in the fiscal year that started in April 2022. Even that forecast was lower than 8.2 per cent projected in January this year. India had grown at 8.7 per cent in 2021-22 fiscal (April 2021 to March 2022).
Analysts are warning of growing risks to the market's sustained momentum, and even to the possibility of consolidation at current levels. Domestically, markets are grappling with several challenges, including a slowing economy, as indicated by the latest GDP data for the July-September (Q2) quarter of 2024-25 (FY25), sticky inflation, fluctuations in the rupee, waning consumption, and high interest rates.
The exodus of FPIs from the Indian equity markets continued unabated, as they withdrew over Rs 7,300 crore (about $840 million) in the first week of this month due to global trade tensions, with the US imposing tariffs on countries such as Canada, Mexico, and China. This came following an outflow of Rs 78,027 crore in the entire January. Before that, they invested Rs 15,446 crore in December, data with the depositories showed.
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